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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 63

Green Bay Packers 10 – Minnesota Vikings 23

What Actually Happened

(1:18) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hundley pass short right to 17-D.Adams pushed ob at GB 42 for 5 yards (29-X.Rhodes).

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.08 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 63, worth -2.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.62 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 21, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model