Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 62

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(13:02) 8-D.Kaser punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-47-M.Windt, Touchback. PENALTY on LV-91-S.Calhoun, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.39 EP
63% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 62, worth -3.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model