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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Los Angeles Chargers
4th & 1 at the 1
Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 7
What Actually Happened
(1:47) 28-M.Gordon left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+3.67 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.84 EP
- 36% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 1, worth -0.17 EP
KICK
+1.86 EP
- 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT
-0.43 EP
- Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
