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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Las Vegas Raiders
4th & 2 at the 41
Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 7
What Actually Happened
(15:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short left to 15-M.Crabtree.
The Three Options
GO
+0.97 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.35 EP
- 45% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.90 EP
KICK
-0.43 EP
- 46% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
- 54% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT
-0.02 EP
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.02 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
