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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 30

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(11:14) 9-N.Novak 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.45 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30, worth -1.73 EP
KICK +0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 40, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model