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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 69

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 16

What Actually Happened

(6:19) 8-D.Kaser punts 56 yards to LV 13, Center-47-M.Windt. 30-J.Richard to LV 26 for 13 yards (25-R.Jenkins, 48-N.Dzubnar).

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 69, worth -3.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 27, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model