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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 66

Las Vegas Raiders 16 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(4:19) 7-M.King punts 58 yards to LAC 8, Center-59-J.Condo. 12-T.Benjamin to LAC 8 for no gain (41-E.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.28 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 24, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model