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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 34

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(1:00) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short right to 13-K.Allen (38-T.Carrie).

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.74 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 34, worth -1.66 EP
KICK +0.43 EP
  • 64% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 44, worth -2.31 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model