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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 39

Miami Dolphins 0 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(7:57) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass incomplete short right to 14-J.Landry (92-D.Poe).

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.55 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 39, worth -2.01 EP
KICK -0.09 EP
  • 58% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 48, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model