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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 17

Miami Dolphins 0 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(7:53) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short right to 26-D.Williams to ATL 14 for 3 yards (37-R.Allen).

The Three Options

GO +2.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.83 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 17, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 27, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model