Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 19 at the 42

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(11:51) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher Aborted. 47-J.Harris FUMBLES at 50, recovered by ATL-5-M.Bosher at ATL 48. 5-M.Bosher to MIA 48 for 4 yards (31-M.Thomas). Snap hit the up back, 20-Neasman.

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP

What Happened

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.41 EP
74% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 42, worth -2.07 EP

KICK -0.33 EP

51% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
49% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model