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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 44

Miami Dolphins 14 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(10:09) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short middle to 14-J.Landry to ATL 35 for 9 yards (37-R.Allen).

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.97 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 44, worth -2.27 EP
KICK -0.67 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 12, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model