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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 16 at the 81

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Miami Dolphins 17

What Actually Happened

(7:11) 5-M.Bosher punts 55 yards to MIA 26, Center-47-J.Harris. 19-J.Grant ran ob at MIA 34 for 8 yards (36-K.Ishmael).

The Three Options

GO -2.68 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.57 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 81, worth -4.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 38, worth -1.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model