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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 32

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(9:48) 3-M.Bryant 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +2.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +4.13 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 32, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
What Happened
  • 74% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 42, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT +0.33 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP