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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 10

Denver Broncos 0 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(4:25) 8-B.McManus 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.55 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.15 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 10, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +2.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.55 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model