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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 72

Denver Broncos 3 – New York Giants 17

What Actually Happened

(11:04) 9-R.Dixon punts 55 yards to NYG 17, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 84-E.Eagan to NYG 37 for 20 yards (32-A.Janovich).

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.51 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 72, worth -4.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 30, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model