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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 33

New York Giants 17 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(8:13) 2-A.Rosas 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.97 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 33, worth -1.66 EP
KICK +0.59 EP
What Happened
  • 70% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 43, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP