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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 35

Denver Broncos 3 – New York Giants 20

What Actually Happened

(4:18) 8-B.McManus 53 yard field goal is BLOCKED (72-K.Wynn), Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.33 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 35, worth -1.52 EP
KICK +0.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 45, worth -2.21 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model