Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 11 at the 62

New York Giants 20 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(12:57) 9-B.Wing punts 44 yards to DEN 18, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 84-I.McKenzie MUFFS catch, and recovers at DEN 15. 84-I.McKenzie to DEN 15 for no gain (38-D.Deayon).

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.63 EP
71% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 62, worth -3.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model