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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 7

New York Giants 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(6:58) 2-A.Rosas 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +1.53 EP
  • 29% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.65 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 7, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model