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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 13 at the 78

Denver Broncos 0 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(4:48) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to NYG 30, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 84-E.Eagan.

The Three Options

GO -2.47 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.97 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 78, worth -4.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 35, worth -1.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model