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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 57

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(7:57) 8-D.Jones punts 48 yards to CAR 9, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 22-C.McCaffrey.

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.35 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 57, worth -3.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -1.07 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 17, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP