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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 30

Philadelphia Eagles 18 – Carolina Panthers 13

What Actually Happened

(8:08) 4-J.Elliott 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +2.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.09 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.48 EP
KICK +0.84 EP
What Happened
  • 75% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 40, worth -2.16 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.40 EP