Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 83

Philadelphia Eagles 21 – Carolina Panthers 13

(6:14) 8-D.Jones punts 49 yards to CAR 34, Center-45-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.90 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.84 EP
64% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 83, worth -4.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model