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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 29

Carolina Panthers 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 21

What Actually Happened

(3:28) 9-G.Gano 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.88 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 29, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 39, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model