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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Carolina Panthers
4th & 1 at the 48
Carolina Panthers 23 – Philadelphia Eagles 28
What Actually Happened
(1:22) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short left to 22-C.McCaffrey.
The Three Options
GO
+1.27 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.14 EP
- 32% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 48, worth -0.55 EP
KICK
+0.44 EP
- 31% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.71 EP
- 69% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT
-0.16 EP
- Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 14, worth -0.16 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
