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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 32

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:02) 4-J.Elliott 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.14 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.76 EP
KICK +0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model