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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 21

Carolina Panthers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(2:20) 9-G.Gano 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +2.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.93 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
What Happened
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 31, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP