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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 1

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Washington Commanders 17

What Actually Happened

(:03) 76-G.Gilliam reported in as eligible. 28-C.Hyde left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +4.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.91 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 1, worth +0.14 EP
KICK +2.94 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.02 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model