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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 13 at the 33

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Washington Commanders 17

What Actually Happened

(9:45) 9-R.Gould 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.51 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 33, worth -1.87 EP
KICK +0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 43, worth -2.39 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model