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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 3

Washington Commanders 17 – San Francisco 49ers 17

What Actually Happened

(10:37) 3-D.Hopkins 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +3.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.04 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 3, worth +0.51 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP