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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 59

San Francisco 49ers 17 – Washington Commanders 20

What Actually Happened

(8:34) 5-B.Pinion punts 49 yards to WAS 10, Center-86-K.Nelson. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 16 for 6 yards (46-M.Nzeocha).

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.90 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 59, worth -2.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 18, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model