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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 20 at the 50

San Francisco 49ers 24 – Washington Commanders 26

What Actually Happened

(:09) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard pass deep right intended for 85-G.Kittle INTERCEPTED by 29-K.Fuller at WAS 32. 29-K.Fuller pushed ob at WAS 35 for 3 yards (81-T.Taylor).

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
What Happened
  • 20% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +1.07 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 50, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 28% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +3.01 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -0.25 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 14, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.64 EP