Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 82

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Washington Commanders 7

(:39) 5-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to WAS 36, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO -2.50 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.61 EP
56% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 82, worth -4.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model