4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 13 at the 78

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(13:08) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 60 yards to MIN 18, Center-46-M.Cox. 35-M.Sherels to BAL 36 for 46 yards (41-A.Levine Sr.).

The Three Options

GO -3.05 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.35 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 78, worth -4.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 35, worth -2.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model