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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 66

Baltimore Ravens 6 – Minnesota Vikings 6

What Actually Happened

(7:44) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 50 yards to MIN 16, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.54 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 66, worth -3.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.29 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 24, worth -1.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP