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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 24

Minnesota Vikings 6 – Baltimore Ravens 6

What Actually Happened

(:39) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +2.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.01 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24, worth -0.60 EP
KICK +1.91 EP
What Happened
  • 87% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 34, worth -1.08 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP