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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 25

Minnesota Vikings 9 – Baltimore Ravens 6

What Actually Happened

(10:57) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +5.00 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 35, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model