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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 19 at the 85

Baltimore Ravens 6 – Minnesota Vikings 12

What Actually Happened

(9:28) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 49 yards to MIN 36, Center-46-M.Cox. 35-M.Sherels ran ob at BAL 45 for 19 yards (37-J.Allen).

The Three Options

GO -3.54 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.48 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 85, worth -5.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 43, worth -2.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model