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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 14

Minnesota Vikings 21 – Baltimore Ravens 9

What Actually Happened

(3:07) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +1.83 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.07 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 14, worth -0.43 EP
KICK +1.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model