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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 11 at the 13

Baltimore Ravens 9 – Minnesota Vikings 24

What Actually Happened

(:03) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 10-C.Moore for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
What Happened
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +3.04 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 13, worth +0.05 EP
KICK +2.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +3.05 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 23, worth +0.04 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +2.15 EP