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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 14 at the 30

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(8:34) 9-J.Tucker 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.70 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30, worth -1.71 EP
KICK +0.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 40, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model