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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 34

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(3:44) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.10 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 34, worth -1.32 EP
KICK +0.99 EP
What Happened
  • 70% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 44, worth -2.05 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model