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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 1

Chicago Bears 14 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(1:14) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-A.DePaola, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +4.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.41 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.58 EP
KICK +2.43 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.38 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.63 EP