Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 74

Chicago Bears 17 – Carolina Panthers 3

(13:51) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 60 yards to CAR 14, Center-49-A.DePaola. 22-C.McCaffrey to CAR 24 for 10 yards (58-J.Anderson).

The Three Options

GO -2.19 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
67% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model