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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 90

Chicago Bears 17 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(11:29) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 66 yards to CAR 24, Center-49-A.DePaola, downed by CHI-15-J.Bellamy.

The Three Options

GO -3.19 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.99 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 90, worth -5.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 47, worth -2.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model