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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 18 at the 46

Chicago Bears 17 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(4:37) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 35 yards to CAR 11, Center-49-A.DePaola, fair catch by 22-C.McCaffrey.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.05 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.07 EP
KICK -0.97 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.20 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model