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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 12 at the 91

Carolina Panthers 3 – Chicago Bears 17

What Actually Happened

(3:44) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 55 yards to CHI 36, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

The Three Options

GO -3.19 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.61 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 91, worth -5.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -1.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 48, worth -1.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model