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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 64

Chicago Bears 7 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:14) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to CAR 21, Center-49-A.DePaola, fair catch by 22-C.McCaffrey.

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.38 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT +0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 22, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model