Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 16 at the 85

Carolina Panthers 0 – Chicago Bears 7

(4:01) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 59 yards to CHI 26, Center-44-J.Jansen. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 32 for 6 yards (55-D.Mayo).

The Three Options

GO -3.45 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.73 EP
71% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 85, worth -5.14 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model